独立日

Canada, Sweden Send Military Instructors to Train Ukrainian Troops: Why is the West Fanning Flames?_我的网站

笑看风云

A | 　　北京时间周三（8月26日）晚上20:30，本周最受关注的美国宏观经济数据之一——7月个人消费支出（PCE）报告——将出炉。

B | 　　作为美联储“最青睐的通胀指标”，最新的PCE数据将在该央行9月政策会议之前为研判美国经济状况提供关键参考，并成为重新定价美国利率预期的重要催化剂。　　市场预计美国7月PCE物价指数将较6月有所回升，但经济学家表示，更广泛的趋势将指向通胀压力趋于缓和。

C | As Canada and Sweden send their first groups of military instructors to the UK to provide training for the Ukrainian forces, it is likely that “the arrival of more NATO instructors will be used by media outlets loyal to the Kiev regime as another little brick in their attempt to build a wall of false 'wunder-waffen' hopes among both the military and the civilian population," former MEP Nick Griffin told Sputnik.,On Friday, Ottawa and Stockholm announced the deployment of their first batches of military instructors to Britain, in what came amid Russia's ongoing special military operation in Ukraine. The deployment followed Canada’s Defence Minister Anita Anand stating last week that Ottawa had authorized the dispatch of up to 225 Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel to Britain to train Ukrainian forces, in line with a new program unveiled by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in June.,She added that CAF servicemen will be sent to the UK for an initial period of four months, and that the Ukrainian troops will be trained on the basics of soldiering “related to frontline combat, weapons handling, first aid, field craft, patrol tactics, and include the law of armed contact.”,Anand said that apart from the training, Canada would provide the Ukrainian military with 39 armored vehicles, which she claimed are fitted with “additional, modern, state of the art armor and machine guns.”,UK Arms to Ukraine Will 'Not Change Anything', Says Former Think-Tank Analyst1 July, 14:45 GMT,Earlier this week, the Finnish Defense Ministry said that they would send about 20 service personnel to the UK to take part in a training program for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The move was preceded by the Swedish military announcing that it will deploy up to 120 military instructors to Britain within the framework of the program.,Meeting Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev in mid-June, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson offered to launch a training program for Ukrainian forces, with the potential to train up to 10,000 soldiers every 120 days. He urged other nations in the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and Canada to join the initiative.,The JEF, which was launched in 2014, is a UK-led expeditionary force consisting of Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Norway.,The UK government noted on its website that under the program, “each soldier would spend three weeks on the training course, learning battle winning skills for the front line, as well as basic medical training, cyber-security and counter explosive tactics.”,According to No 10, the program will “train and drill the Armed Forces of Ukraine using battle-proven British Army expertise, allowing them to accelerate their deployment, rebuild their forces, and scale-up their resistance” to Russian troops.,Griffin said in this vein that Western countries are seeking to prolong the Ukraine conflict due to a whole array of factors, not least “the profits of the military-industrial complex, hostility to independent Russia of the neo-con and corporate lobbies, as well as the opportunity to use the conflict as an excuse for advancing the Western elite's insanely destructive decarbonisation agenda.”,He stressed that as far as Canada is concerned, “there is one extra factor: the country has the world's biggest concentration of Ukrainians, behind only the Ukraine itself and Russia.”,According to him, “the community's politics have been heavily influenced by Banderista ideology and hatred, and the Ukrainian lobby is well-organized, with plenty of politicians in receipt of campaign donations and back-handers. In a corrupted, kleptocratic democracy like Canada, money talks.”,RussiaUK Pledges $1.2 Billion Military Aid to Ukraine, Reports Say30 June, 07:08 GMT,Griffin suggested that Canada and Sweden sending their military instructors to the UK might be “far more of a political gesture and propaganda tool for the Kiev regime, than it is a genuine military factor” to change the situation on the ground in Ukraine.,“Training troops properly takes very much longer than Ukraine's unfortunate conscripts are getting before being thrown into the meat-grinder. Even well-trained troops only take a little longer to kill when the capabilities of the two sides are as far apart as they now are in Donbass, so [Canadian Prime Minister Justin] Trudeau's aggressive gesture will change nothing on the ground,” the former MEP insisted.,Britain has delivered hundreds of millions of pounds’ worth of military equipment and training support to Ukraine since 2014, including through secret “Operation Orbital”, over the course of which more than 22,000 Ukrainian troops were trained in the use of portable anti-tank missiles and other weapons.,Currently, the UK remains the second-largest supplier of weaponry to Ukraine after the US, providing Kiev with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, missile boats, armored vehicles, and long-range artillery.,The Russian Defense Ministry has repeatedly warned that the UK would evoke an "immediate and proportional response" from Moscow if it continued to provoke Kiev into launching attacks on Russian soil using British-made weapons, amid Russia’s special operation in Ukraine.,The operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine was announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin on 24 February following the Donbass republics’ request to protect them from Kiev’s atrocities.。　　根据FactSet的一致预期，经济学家预计美国7月整体PCE将环比上涨0.07%，此前6月环比下降了0.11%；7月PCE同比涨幅预计由6月的3.7%小幅回落至3.6%。

D | 　　剔除波动较大的食品、能源价格的核心PCE物价指数，预计环比上涨0.18%，略高于6月的上涨0.13%；同比上涨3.20%，而6月为上涨3.3%。　　值得注意的是，美国经济分析局将于9月发布对PCE报告的计算方法变更，以更准确地捕捉计算机硬件、股票投资组合管理和法律服务领域的价格动态。这意味着，7月PCE数据后续或将面临修正。　　此前6月美国PCE数据曾出现2020年以来首次环比负增长，同比升幅也从前月的4.1%收窄至3.7%。

E | 通胀降温主要源于美伊达成临时停火协议后油价的走低。　　ClearBridge 投资高级投资策略分析师Josh Jamner表示：“通胀预期整体相当稳定。过去几个月出现的通胀抬升预计只是短期现象。”　　为何7月核心PCE预计仍将处于高位？　　法国外贸银行（Natixis）美国首席经济学家Christopher Hodge表示，虽然目前 “已不再有证据表明关税正在影响通胀”，但仍有几个细分品类继续给核心通胀带来压力。

F | 主要来看，与人工智能与数据中心大规模建设相关的计算机软硬件价格上行压力仍在持续显现。　　他预计美国7月整体PCE将环比上涨0.14%，同比涨幅维持在3.70%。核心PCE将环比上涨0.20%，同比涨幅同样维持在3.3%。

G | 　　瑞银经济学家表示，近几个月来，AI在通胀篮子中的存在一直在缓慢爬升，但尚不足以搅乱整体通胀趋势。

H | 随着AI在各行业的采用扩大，软件和IT成本正在上升，并带动计算机硬件等核心耐用品的成本走高。　　该行经济学家预计，美国7月整体PCE将环比上涨0.16%，同比上涨3.60%；核心PCE将环比上涨0.25%，同比上涨3.30%。　　高盛高级经济学家David Mericle预计，随着金融市场施加上行压力，核心PCE将在7月上涨，因为股价走高预计将推高投资组合管理费。

I | 这可能对月度涨幅贡献0.11个百分点。总体而言，Mericle预计，核心PCE 7月将环比上涨0.20%，同比上涨3.24%。

J | 　　美联储9月料按兵不动　　ClearBridge的Jamner预计，美联储9月将按兵不动。更多经济数据将在9月会议前陆续公布，如8月CPI和就业报告。　　“目前来看，美联储目前按兵不动的可能性比其他任何选项都更大，但距离会议仍有一段时间，局势仍存在变数。　　Natixis的Hodge也倾向于认为美联储9月将维持利率不变，但与此同时，他认为，鉴于近期的经济数据，市场对加息的预期是合理的。　　“如果PCE数据令人意外（即通胀超预期），且并非因为某种统计异常，那么9月加息的可能性就会提升。但我并不认为会出现这种情况，预计数据整体将相当温和。”他表示。　　据CME“美联储观察”，目前美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为60.4%，加息25个基点的概率为39.6%。　　虽然大多数市场参与者预计美联储9月将按兵不动，但这一前景可能随着更多通胀和就业数据的出炉而发生改变。　　总体来看，市场参与者仍在等待更多信号，以判断美国经济基本面，以及美联储今年是否会选择加息。